Gridlock

It's Bike to Work Day in Saint Paul. Convoys formed at various points around the city and rode downtown to food and prizes and speeches. I don't work downtown, though, and am hoarding vacation time for other purposes, so just rode to work by myself.

I stopped at the dry cleaners to drop off some trousers to get cleaned and pressed for my clerical duties at this weekend's Three Speed Tour. I rode down Hoyt and took Hamline north up to Larpenteur, where I got in the left turn lane. A motorcycle pulled up next to me in the straight-through lane. Crossing traffic stopped, southbound Hamline traffic got the advanced-left signal and began going, I got poised to start, and....cross traffic started up again.

Neither I nor the motorcycle were heavy enough to trigger the traffic light.

Now, there was a segment on Channel 5 IMissedIt News a week or two ago about cyclists' running red lights and stop signs. Now here we were, me and the motorcyclist, obeying the traffic semaphores as cars stacked up behind us. If we strictly followed the law, nobody would go anywhere, ever.

I checked to make sure no cars were filtering forward to right-on-red, and rode over to the pedestrian crosswalk button and pushed it, then rode back into my left turn lane. Half a minute went by and cross traffic stopped. This time the southbound traffic got the advanced left again, but our lights turned green and we got to go. I hope that the motorists stacked up behind us noted that traffic signals don't always work for cyclists and that sometimes we have to take a liberal interpretation of their meaning or nobody goes anywhere.

I saw a couple of other riders along the way. I rode up Hamline rather than my usual Lexington to work, so am not sure if these folks are regulars or not, but a couple looked well-equipped (panniers, attire) and waved as they went by. No speeches at work, no free food, no prizes, just another day riding past the gas stations with their $3.72 signs up. With those kinds of prices, and possibly worse to come (a story last night on the news noted that many older gas pumps don't go past $3.99 a gallon, a faint echo of the late 1970s or was it early 1980s when older pumps wouldn't go past 0.999 a gallon), there may be more of us on the road. Give them a wave when you see them.

Bicycle Sales Up Worldwide

Forbes has an article (reabable here) about the booming sales of bicycles worldwide. Some snippets:

Rising petrol prices, growing awareness of environmental issues and the popularity of cycling as a recreation sport has fuelled a surge in demand for bicycles around the world...

Bicycle sales have over the past five years increased by 14.6 percent among European Union nations, which buy 70 percent of the world's bikes, according to Bike Europe. In the United States, sales have increased by almost 9 percent in the same time period...

Europeans increasingly pedal to work on bike-friendly streets planned by city governments that encourage cycling, while a growing pool of commuters in China use battery bikes and Americans ride mainly for sport or to work off calories...

Would-be riders in newly developed regions such as Taiwan still see bikes as a symbol of a poor past, while riders complain worldwide of inclement weather, unsafe traffic and rampant theft despite the best locks.

That's an interesting point about the poor past in the last bit I cite above. I have read that in bicycle-friendly Amsterdam, one of the challenges is getting immigrant communities, especially Muslim ones, to adopt bicycling. It's not part of the cultural background for many in these communities, and, in an echo of late 19th-century America, the freedom bicycles allow women is discomforting to the traditional social structure.

Another interesting bit that addresses a market hardly even breathing in the U.S.:

Giant also manufactures battery powered bikes which are popular in China where the company operates three factories. Battery-powered bikes are a big hit as China's economic boom puts money in the pockets of even the poorest factory workers who almost immediately upgrade their bikes.

Chinese consumers snapped up more than 20 million battery powered bikes in 2006. The bikes, powered by a 36 or 48 volt battery can travel at around 25-km an hour. They sell for around 3000 yuan ($430) a unit.

Now, 25-km an hour is only about 16 mph, but that's still a useful speed, faster than my usual cruising in-town, and gets rid of some of the sweatiness that inhibits many people from commuting. Maybe this will become a market in this country as well.

Pedalphile

A few weeks ago I was registering twocitiestwowheels.com as a domain name. I was thinking about registering pedalphile.com as well, but made the mistake of doing an inquiry in Network Solutions' site. It was available, but at $35 a year. At godaddy.com it was way cheaper to register a domain, so I registered Two Cities Two Wheels and tried to register Pedalphile, but it showed it held by Network Solutions. Darn them! I figured I'd get back to it once the hold was released and register it, but when I tried today someone else had already snagged it April 13. Oh well. It's a great name, and I hope they make use of it.

Oil has been on people's minds lately. The runup in oil prices has not been that big a surprise, or at least should not have been to sentient beings. With gas prices in the $3.40 a gallon range, there are now calls to drop the federal gasoline tax for the summer to help the American consumer. Senator Obama is against it, Senators Clinton and McCain are for it. I think it's a stupid idea. Gasoline has become more expensive, but it's going to stay that way and you might as well get used to it. In the meantime, the Federal budget deficit continues to increase (and will take a nice jump next week when the government sends us all money borrowed from the Chinese so that we can go out and blow it. I may take my children to dinner since they're the poor sods who'll be paying it back, with interest) which helps weaken the dollar which helps push up oil prices.

Although not normally someone I cite when I make a point, how about this quote:

"Let us rid ourselves of the fiction that low oil prices are somehow good for the United States"

That's Dick Cheney in October 1986 shortly after introducing legislation to increase the gas tax. He supported it in part because it would help reduce the federal deficit, something that seems to have become less of a priority for him in recent years.

It has been interesting to watch the airlines' reactions to the oil price increase. Prices are going up and some airlines have simply shut down operations. I think airlines are in a bad position and combining Northwest and Delta, as has been proposed, does not answer the question of how to get by on $120 a barrel oil. With the economic headwinds from contracting credit, reduced consumer confidence and increased commodity prices showing up in oil and food, there is going to be reduced demand for air travel, a situation exacerbated by the higher ticket prices airlines will have to charge. Almost the whole industry has gone through bankruptcy and they don't have the equity cushion to absorb a lot of losses from fuel prices.

I think airlines are going to have to find some new equilibrium, with much higher ticket prices and a much reduced flight schedule. I looked to see how many flights there are from here to Chicago O'Hare each day. Care to guess? My boss guessed 12. Wrongo. If you choose to fly on May 5th (I just picked a date), you can select from 32 flights to O'Hare on United, American or Northwest (you can find USAir or Continental flights, too, but they're just code-shares with these guys). There's two off at 6AM, two more at 7AM, and after the fifth flight of the day goes at 8:15 not an hour goes by without a flight until the gap between the American 7:35PM departure and Northwest's 9:15 and 10:16 flights, at which point we're done for the day, only to run it all again tomorrow.

One wonders, is there currently and will there in future be sufficient demand to support 32 flights a day between here and Chicago? (I'm ignoring flights to Midway airport, although when ATA collapsed a few weeks ago a lot of those went away). What if there's only really demand for 24 flights, or 17, or 10? There will be some painful price discovery and service adjustments as the competitors and customers grope through the scheduling and pricing scenarios trying to find this equilibrium.

Less acutely, regular people are going to have the same groping, expensive journey. Transit ridership in the Twin Cities is already way up this year; bicycle commuting will probably increase as well, helped along by the promise of finally getting some temperate weather. Does anyone doubt that carpooling will become more popular? My father used to carpool in the 1960s and 1970s, partly because we didn't have a second car until I was 16. If you live a long way from work, or work and home are areas not well-covered by transit, these adjustments are going to be hard.

I have to say I have enjoyed the cheap energy era. As much as I like bicycles, I also love airplanes, and first flew when it was so unusual that everyone dressed up and they published a passenger list, just like on a ship (OK, 1960, for the curious, by British Overseas Airways Corporation Douglas DC-6, Buffalo-Gander-Shannon-London service)(and no, I don't remember a thing, but I do still have the passenger list and I am exceptionally cute in the photos wearing my camel hair overcoat). I've enjoyed many a car trip just aimlessly sightseeing, and many of the advantages of cheap energy, from year-round fresh foods to cheap airline tickets, have enlivened my life. I think this era is drawing to a close, that we are getting higher energy prices from structural economic reasons rather than transient supply disruptions, and that adjustments are going to have to be made.

Bicycles are part of the answer. They can't do everything, of course, and they're pretty useless for nipping down to Chicago for the day, like I did last year on planes with a cheap advance-purchase ticket, but for many trips most of us take much of the time, they'll do fine. I guess it's our job to welcome new cyclists into the fold, show them the ropes, restore to them some sense of the joy and discovery that riding still holds. No matter how much you like bicycles, though, I'd probably hesitate to introduce yourself as a pedalphile!

This is a bit harsh

I think bicycle thieves are among the scum of the earth and don't get punished enough, but this is going a bit far: Two Jailed Over Boy's Pool Death.

Kid steals a bicycle, the owner and some friends throw him in a pool, prevent him from getting out, and he drowns. A crowd watched:

She said about a dozen people watched Shane struggle in the water and did not try to rescue him.

Ah yes, Jolly Olde England!

I'm not sure what the appropriate punishment is, but death sounds too harsh. These guys are all at pretty stupid ages, not unlike the 15-year-old who stole a car a couple of weeks ago in Minneapolis, drove 80mph down Lake Street running red lights and killed a woman going to church. I wouldn't be surprised if bike thefts rise this year, triggered by more people trying bicycle commuting and the resulting increase in opportunities for theft by the more feral elements of the population.

Coincidence?

February 10, 2008: Matt sees Robin Williams at the North American Handmade Bicycle Show.

March 27, 2008: Robin Williams' wife of 19 years files for divorce

Hmmm, I wonder if the Visa statement showed up?

Stupidest Bike Lane?

Slate has a video purporting to show the stupidest bike lane in America, a 275-foot effort in Los Angeles. Take a look here to watch the video. He solicits suggestions for stupider bike lanes if you have any in mind.

Bummer

I was getting my jollies reading today's Bike SnobNYC and the comments and amidst the comments was the news that Sheldon Brown has died. I think most any interested cyclist has referred to Sheldon's extremely good site on cycling gear, technique and history. He was very engaged in the community and even commented on my blog a couple of times, which made me feel honored. I never met the guy, never talked to him personally, exchanged emails just a couple of times, but his loss leaves a hole in the cycling community. He'll be missed.


This is an image of Sheldon that Ahearne had engraved on one of their flasks as part of a tribute memorial to him at the North American Handmade Bicycle Show in Portland.

Peak Oil at the Legislature on Monday

Matthew Simmons of Simmons International will address the Minnesota legislature on Monday, February 4 at 1:00 p.m., Room 200 of the State Office Building. He will speak to a joint meeting of the Senate Committee on Energy, Utilities, Technology and Communications and House Energy Finance and Policy Division. His visit is sponsored by Representative Bill Hilty in an effort to move forward a resolution directing the state to plan to meet the challenges of peak oil. The meeting is open to the public and we are encouraged to attend and show legislators they are concerned about this issue.

I like Matt Simmons and have a link to his website over on the right. If you read the Peak Oil sites, you'll find all kinds of attitudes and opinion, some of which can give you the willies. Simmons, an investment banker with long experience specializing in the energy industry, brings a voice that I find informed and reality-based. Not to say that he's reassuring; he thinks the peak may have hit in mid-2005 and we're in the early stages of the production plateau/rising demand with the resulting increase in energy prices. Also, he has been warning about peak natural gas, which is alarming to me since my house is heated with gas.

Simmons has links to many presentations on his site. I particularly like the perspective from his Presentation to his Harvard Business School 40th Reunion (like I said, he's real mainstream)on the history of the energy industry these last four decades.

Anyway, this meeting is open to the public. There are many reasons to ride bicycles, among them their supreme efficiency. They are a simple answer to many complicated problems. If you want to hear about one of these complicated problems from an informed expert, this meeting would be a good one to attend. Having said that, I'm not sure I'll make it, having just been gone three days on a business trip (on which, in an apparent effort to speed up the Peak Oil phenomenon, I was "upgraded" to a Ford Expedition for no additional charge, what a bloated cow of a vehicle that is!) and next week I'm gone after Tuesday, so time is short at work, and I may not make it.